George Friedman, director of a formally private intelligence analysis organization, Stratfor, which is funded by the Pentagon and several large U.S. corporations, predicts that Russia will cease to exist by 2020.
According to forecasts of Stratfor, Central Asia will, for some time, return to the Russian sphere of influence – especially because “the U.S. cannot strengthen its positions in in the region due a Russian pressure”, but Russia will fall apart by 2020.
In the mid-decade, Friedman suggests a new Cold War could be started that wouldn’t require any major efforts from the United States.
A rapid decline in population, borders moved almost to Moscow and St. Petersburg and the problems in the Caucasus will lead to “Russia’s collapse without any war” as it was in 1917 and again in 1991.
Russia’s collapse will lead to a chaos in Eurasia, the disintegration will touch not only Russia but other countries of the former Soviet Union, as well as a regionalization of China.
“From the U.S. point of view, the chaos in Eurasia would be an excellent solution. Eurasia would become “a haven for poachers”. The countries on the periphery of Eurasia, will have an exceptional opportunity for an invasion on foreign territories”.
Stratfor believes that the U.S. allies Japan, Turkey and Poland will be able to take advantage of Russia’s disintegration.
True, after about 20-30 years, the interests of Turkey and Poland will collide, and the author predicts even a war between them – on the territory of present Russia and Ukraine.
The following collapse of Russia, according to Friedman, “would open the door to a golden age for the U.S.”, but first, the United States will experience a domestic economic crisis, caused by labor shortages.
Americans will have to remove the barriers for immigrants, which will change the balance of power on the continent by the end of the XXI century. Mexico, which will become a leading economic power along with 6 to 7 other countries, can seriously challenge the United States, perhaps in alliance with Brazil.
But Russia would long ceased to exist on the world map at that moment.
Europe is on brink of war
– Putin’s lying, and Europe is on the brink of war, says Polish MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski. He also accused the Moscow that Kremlin violates international law. The aim of all these actions is, in accordance with the Russian policy, restoration of the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin is lying, says MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski from the party Civic Platform. Today in Crimea Russian leader said in particular that the Russian Federation does not preclude unilateral withdrawal from international treaties, the same – as Putin believes – did the United States.
A guest of Radio Onet reminded that Russia is violating the law. Russia violates the international law, as it did during its invasion of Crimea, violates the Budapest Memorandum and recently violated the agreement on arms limitation, said Saryusz-Wolski. MEP believes that at the moment we are on the brink of war in Europe. Invasion of eastern Ukraine, which is the de facto occupation of Lugansk, Donetsk and Donbass regions – it is a local war – said the MEP.
According to him, Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union – it is his main goal. Putin hopes that the West is much less willing to bear hardships, believes the West as spineless, and sometimes even cowardly and wants to extort further concessions. And now he conducts the militarization of Russian society, says Jacek Saryusz-Wolski.
Vladimir Putin arrived yesterday in Crimea. This is his second trip to the peninsula after the annexation”.
Meanwhile, the United States Mission to the OSCE issued a statement in connection with the continued aggressive actions of Russia, threatening with a full-scale war.
A statement was made by the Charge d’Affaires Gary Robbins at a special meeting of the Permanent Council in Vienna. The statement, in particular, points to the continuing violations of the Russian Federation, OSCE principles and commitments and the situation in Ukraine
Putin wanted to shot down a Russian Aeroflot civilian plane to justify its invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian state police SBU head Valentyn Nalyvajchenko told journalists Aug.7.
The Russian plane was flying from Moscow to Larnaka via the same corridor as the Malaysian MH17.
For this purpose, the Russians had to move the Buk AA system to Pervomajsk, 20 km west of Donetsk. Since the Buk crew were not locals, they moved the missiles to another Pervomajsk cited to the north-east of Donetsk, Nalyvajchenko said.
The targeted Aeroflot plane had to fall down in the territory controlled by the Ukraine army. The downing was cynically planned to justify Moscow’s reaction to the deaths of innocent Russian passengers.
Putin ordered the invasion to begin on July 18.
Russia secret services have long been accused of resorting to cruel and ignoble terrorist acts to stir up public protests, Nalyvajchenko said. He recalled the idea of one of Russian terrorist leaders, KGB colonel Girkin, to blow up residential houses in Donbas to egg on locals to protests against the Ukrainian army.
“The United States continues to condemn strongly Russia’s destabilizing actions and ongoing support for armed separatists in eastern Ukraine as well as its continued occupation of Crimea”, said Robbins. The full statement can be read at this link.
Department of Monitoring
Department of Monitoring
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